Wednesday, January 06, 2010

The future of cars

I find this interesting because, no matter how many things GM gets right or wrong in this concept car, there's no doubt that we all tend to be stuck in the ways of thinking, doing, and building which we have learned, so I applaud all attempts to break free of that.



Bert sez:
Most of this technology has been presented before, in various shapes or forms. I remember reading about the platform design, with exchangeable shells & all, a few years back already (from a public presentation in an American auto show). Hydrogen fuel cells are nothing new either. But it's the first time I've seen the whole lot of it package into one single vehicle, and that's a clear sign of progress.

As to why it hasn't happened yet, please drop the conspiracy theories and all that crap. Please. Profound changes in thinking affect the lives of tens of thousands of people, long before the first product ever hits the market. The conservative factions in an empire like GM are forces to be reckoned, and they are driven by plain old insecurity, self-interest and other primal motivations, not conspiracies.

The power struggle that would have resulted if a group would have tried to impose such changes in times were GM was still a healthy business would have been akin to a small war, no less. The current turmoil, and the resulting weakening of the old guard (especially in management) is a definite boon here, as it is likely to make life a lot easier for the promoters of change.

The way things are actually done in established industries is far from the simple picture we instinctively form. In every active technology sector, small research groups exist to bring up and explore novel ideas, most of which die in infancy. Not necessarily because they were bad ideas, sometimes it is a matter of poor timing, or sometimes because an idea is promoted by the wrong people and/or in the wrong manner. But sometimes the best ideas somehow make it out of the lab.

The more radical the departure from established ways is, the longer it takes to sell the idea, because of the associated risk, etc. What makes me very happy in this case is that the concept is still around after nearly a decade in exploration, which means that, by now, it should has been mostly accepted as a viable future for the automobile. Yay! I loove the idea of a truly convertible, universal platform.

As for the hydrogen power plant, well, did you know it is illegal in most western countries? So, if you were to build a hydrogen car today, you still couldn't drive it around, let alone sell it. Why? Because the transportation of explosive substances is regulated, and hydrogen is very explosive. Novel storage technologies have been developed that make it very difficult to produce an explosion, but these still have to be proven safe to everyone's satisfaction (not a small feat in itself).

Btw, if you believe that gasoline is explosive, then you've been watching too much TV. Yes, you can cause humongous detonations with it (search for MOAB), but this usually requires the use of a small primary bomb to vaporize the gasoline prior to ignition. In everyday life, how often have you seen or heard of (from a reliable source) of a car that exploded? Yet, a hydrogen tank with enough capacity for a car has the potential to make all Hollywood car explosions look like firecrackers. BIG badaboom.

Introducing hydrogen in the automobile sector will take a long time, and will require a lot more changes than just new cars.

6 comments:

Ivor Tymchak said...

I might be missing something obvious here, but why is all the research concentrated around cars? Why can't you have a hydrogen cell powering your house? Couldn't the hydrogen be delivered in a tanker like oil?

Uncle Ron said...

why is all the research concentrated around cars?

Good point Ivor...

Miserere said...

I have been suspicious of "future cars" for the longest time. There are no reasons why we couldn't be driving electric cars right now...except the powers that be aren't interested in that.

And GM? Please watch Who Killed the Electric Car? and get back to me about their commitment to "future cars".

Alex said...

There used to be several key mechanical linkages from the chassis/drive train to the cockpit/drivers seat. These were gear shift, steering, cabling for breaks, accelerator and clutch. Then there was the wiring loom for all the electrics, low voltage from switches to the relays, then long high current cables to the lights. Reliable busses for lights have been around a while, just a matter of getting used to them, as for power/break control, and steering, there was a built in mechanical failsafe. The drive by wire model eleminates all this. You have to be 100% confident of the bus before you can adopt the skateboard platform.

Once you can rely on electronic controllers, and a relliable control bus, with well designed failsafe, then the skate board becomes an option.

Again, replacing mirrors with cameras, been coming in for years (RV, Limo etc) but you need a good dimmable display (and I contend GPS units fail in that) for night usage.

I agree, you need to think outside the box, but there were previously mechanical limitations.

We all know that the "generic platform" has been around for a while, e.g. Ford Transit, Land Rover, obvious platforms that get coach built in all sorts of ways, the drivers seat was the only link between body and chassis/drive train.

The Routemaster Bus was designed so that the whole body would lift clear for easy maintenace too, a 1950's design.

It's something that's been at the back of everyones mind, now the technology is right to do it.

Ivor Tymchak said...

I’ve developed a rechargeable battery that is big enough to power your house. Simply charge it overnight by plugging it into the mains…

Bert said...

Most of this technology has been presented before, in various shapes or forms. I remember reading about the platform design, with exchangeable shells & all, a few years back already (from a public presentation in an American auto show). Hydrogen fuel cells are nothing new either. But it's the first time I've seen the whole lot of it package into one single vehicle, and that's a clear sign of progress.

As to why it hasn't happened yet, please drop the conspiracy theories and all that crap. Please. Profound changes in thinking affect the lives of tens of thousands of people, long before the first product ever hits the market. The conservative factions in an empire like GM are forces to be reckoned, and they are driven by plain old insecurity, self-interest and other primal motivations, not conspiracies.

The power struggle that would have resulted if a group would have tried to impose such changes in times were GM was still a healthy business would have been akin to a small war, no less. The current turmoil, and the resulting weakening of the old guard (especially in management) is a definite boon here, as it is likely to make life a lot easier for the promoters of change.

The way things are actually done in established industries is far from the simple picture we instinctively form. In every active technology sector, small research groups exist to bring up and explore novel ideas, most of which die in infancy. Not necessarily because they were bad ideas, sometimes it is a matter of poor timing, or sometimes because an idea is promoted by the wrong people and/or in the wrong manner. But sometimes the best ideas somehow make it out of the lab.

The more radical the departure from established ways is, the longer it takes to sell the idea, because of the associated risk, etc. What makes me very happy in this case is that the concept is still around after nearly a decade in exploration, which means that, by now, it should has been mostly accepted as a viable future for the automobile. Yay! I loove the idea of a truly convertible, universal platform.

As for the hydrogen power plant, well, did you know it is illegal in most western countries? So, if you were to build a hydrogen car today, you still couldn't drive it around, let alone sell it. Why? Because the transportation of explosive substances is regulated, and hydrogen is very explosive. Novel storage technologies have been developed that make it very difficult to produce an explosion, but these still have to be proven safe to everyone's satisfaction (not a small feat in itself).

Btw, if you believe that gasoline is explosive, then you've been watching too much TV. Yes, you can cause humongous detonations with it (search for MOAB), but this usually requires the use of a small primary bomb to vaporize the gasoline prior to ignition. In everyday life, how often have you seen or heard of (from a reliable source) of a car that exploded? Yet, a hydrogen tank with enough capacity for a car has the potential to make all Hollywood car explosions look like firecrackers. BIG badaboom.

Introducing hydrogen in the automobile sector will take a long time, and will require a lot more changes than just new cars.